Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 16.361863 19.850292 23.707645 28.263115 33.468873 39.205114 45.975882
2025-10-19 11.407570 15.945554 21.497270 28.672389 37.576255 48.136616 61.473117
2025-10-26 8.784341 13.762618 20.353735 29.463971 41.453676 56.410322 76.164847
2025-11-02 6.676137 11.646068 18.720751 29.096001 43.451953 62.124486 87.695915
2025-11-09 5.307855 10.225386 17.697885 29.235992 45.890999 68.313005 99.930389
2025-11-16 4.212521 8.954769 16.631248 29.071006 47.735157 73.648052 111.139577
2025-11-23 3.255534 7.676223 15.312276 28.296108 48.521515 77.437749 120.295067
2025-11-30 2.781304 7.152328 15.114181 29.179254 51.737497 84.719981 134.500485
2025-12-07 2.210058 6.290601 14.188260 28.745973 52.849050 88.948745 144.495090
2025-12-14 1.838394 5.746624 13.735486 29.020622 55.029614 94.786004 156.954870
2025-12-21 1.375421 4.852518 12.465313 27.710018 54.513924 96.482962 163.360600
2025-12-28 1.179663 4.555229 12.323683 28.389755 57.287497 103.286613 177.528798
2026-01-04 0.984856 4.220805 12.098027 28.977073 60.093530 110.505134 192.979491
2026-01-11 0.813993 3.895733 11.844197 29.493932 62.832354 117.781741 208.867973
2026-01-18 0.688920 3.662586 11.754111 30.310127 66.127621 126.064709 226.564435
2026-01-25 0.530173 3.236235 11.118989 29.934485 67.225937 130.781934 238.822800
2026-02-01 0.423735 2.945025 10.757839 30.077624 69.257873 137.089909 253.755121
2026-02-08 0.328009 2.636362 10.282983 29.908972 70.667928 142.377501 267.185474
2026-02-15 0.236716 2.273770 9.571810 29.116778 70.805051 145.469853 277.130352
2026-02-22 0.200998 2.172823 9.598854 30.019628 74.293751 154.452627 296.918064
2026-03-01 0.147408 1.914583 9.084560 29.576697 75.062242 158.694114 308.998009
2026-03-08 0.115951 1.765018 8.880108 29.857466 77.297014 165.585498 325.645700
2026-03-15 0.073560 1.462738 8.071904 28.517534 76.085633 166.243324 331.832221